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发布时间：2025-04-20 06:54:40 来源：cs2 case simulator 作者：case drop

An online best-of-three could determine which team gets the all-important Stage 2 invite to the Major.

The 32-team PGL Astana North America closed qualifier has reached playoffs, leaving only M80, NRG, Wildcard, and BLUEJAYS in the running for a spot at the $1,250,000 event in Kazakhstan.

However, far more than just an Astana berth is on the line for Wildcard and M80, who are separated by only a handful of points on Valve's Global Ranking in 19th and 20th place, respectively, and are about to face off in the Astana qualifier semi-finals.

Date	Matches
PGL Astana 2025 North America Closed Qualifier
01/04/2025	Wildcard00:00 M80	Match

Regionally, Wildcard are fifth in the Americas ranking and M80 in sixth, meaning that Peter "⁠stanislaw⁠" Jarguz's side would receive the final invite to Stage 2 of the BLAST.tv Austin Major and M80 would have to fight through the MRQ when the VRS ranking is updated on April 7.

On our April 7 ranking predictor page, which accounts for decay and unfinished tournaments, Wildcard would just pip M80 for the spot by four points (1096 to 1092).

That gap could either grow larger or be flipped on its head entirely when the teams meet momentarily in the semi-final of the Astana qualifier.

The VRS forecast for the matchup — which includes ranking points earned during the qualifier but doesn't factor in final placements and decay by April 7 — currently has M80 (1146 points) ahead of Wildcard (1135 points).

M80 could extend that gap to nearly 42 points if they win the semi-final, all but guaranteeing their Stage 2 berth to Austin and sending Wildcard to the MRQ, while the result going the other way would see Wildcard reclaim the lead by 21 points.

The grand final of the qualifier and any recalculation of head-to-head points based on the teams' past opponents could also be just enough to swing results one way or the other, but with the predicted gap, this match will almost assuredly decide who takes the final spot.

Wildcard preemptively prepared for the worst-case scenario by playing the qualifier with Jake "⁠Stewie2K⁠" Yip as a substitute for Love "⁠phzy⁠" Smidebrant, making their core an Americas-majority rather than a Europe-Americas split.

Valve's rules require teams with split-region majorities to get invited from the strongest region possible, which means a European MRQ invite would have come before a North American one if Wildcard failed to stay in the top five of the Americas ranking.

With Stewie2K, they would play in the NA MRQ instead — but still have the chance to avoid it entirely in the upcoming high-stakes matchup.

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